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10th
OCT
Iran cutting off all despotic threats
Posted by Ali Sanaei under Iran, Middle East, Politics, USA, War and Military
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October 10, 2007 -
Iran, Middle East, Politics, USA, War and Military -
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bullsh**
No, Iran is now really a powerfull country.
USA doesn’t have teh guts to invade iran, if they hade, they wouldn’t waste a single second, trust me!
Iran isn’t as powerful as they seem, or as they claim to be. In fact when you compare Iran and the USA, Iran is completely out matched. They will certainly put up more of a fight than Iraq but the US, like Israel, is well practised at this new type of warfare that isn’t really too dissimilar from what was used in WWII, make the people suffer.
The US will attack water treatment plants, bridges, communications etc. Basically aim to put Iran back into the dark ages. I am sure that by the end thousands of Iranian civilians will die of starvation, thirst and US targeted missiles.
Iran’s only hope is a guerilla style campaign but I can’t see the US invading, at least not in force.
Yes, Iran is outmatched in terms of both quantity and quality of military weapons comparing to the US. It’s obvious that all countries may claim themselves a bit more powerfull than what they are, and that includes USA, Israel, Russia and others.
The war will not be as simple as you said Mac. Iran experienced this sort of war during its 8 year war with Iraq, the Iraq who had the whole world’s support.
The US-Iran war will not be only in the Iranian land, and will go much further than that. Lebanon, Hizbullah, Palestine, Hamas, Syria, Afghanistan and few other countries will get involved in it, without wantin so!
Hurmuz which is the main and only gateway for the Persin Gulf’s oil will be almost blocked by Iran, and so so so on.
I don’t think this post is about the war and its technical styles. However I agree with you that the war, if happens, will have a guerialla style, which both countries are good at!
Parsa-Khalid-Mac;ur discussons here r g8, thx. im learning alot from it :)
I reckon Iran has the strongest local army in the region.
Parsa, unfortunately that is wishful thinking, believe me I’d like to see the US get a bloody nose but I don’t think that is going to happen. Iran has almost 1000 planes, the US has over 18,000. The USA would have complete air superiority, which will mean that they’ll destroy Iran’s military capacity in less than a week. It won’t be like Iran Vs Iraq, more like David against Goliath. No other countries will get involved, at least officially, as that will give Israel the excuse to get involved, and take yet more land.
It will be short and sweet, and it will take Iran years to recover. There won’t be a ground war, but even if there were the US has 4 times as many trained troops as Iran. Iran has just over 2000 tanks, the US has 30,000.
As for blocking the Persian Gulf, Iran has just 65 ships and most of them are fast patrol boats (basically dingeys with engines). The US has almost 2000 ships, if Iran were to blockade the Persian Gulf, it would be a short blockade.
I don’t think people really appreciate just how powerful the US is. This is why they can get away with pretty much whatever they want, there literally is no one to challenge them, and that is bad news for everyone.
Hello Mahsa, the big power in the region has been the same for quite some time, Turkey. Pakistan is second and then probably Israel and then Syria or Iran.
It isn’t as simple as you see Mac, if it was, they would’ve attacked Iran by know and finished the job in few weeks as you say …
I don’t agree that nobody is there to challange US. In Islamic countries, especially Iran we have 14 million Basijis who are volunteers to goto war! 14,000,000 persons all signed up for any possible war. Even if you think that 50%, no 80% have just signed up and will not actually turn up, there will still be 2,800,000 ready beside the official 2 armies Iran has …
This may not be understandable for some people, but here in Iran; people don’t really count on weapons, they count on their religious beliefs.
The worst thing which may happen for them may be getting killed. ‘Most’ Iranians are not afraid of being killed and don’t mind, but they ofcourse do mind others getting killed or any dangour for their country and it’s a very long story……………. a true one, not just in movies!
Even if we want to count weapons, Iran has enough missiles and military equiment to make serious problems for US in the Persian Gulf and it’s possible allies. Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, Iraq and some other points will turn to hell for them as well.
Don’t you remember Israel as world’s #5 army attacking Hizbullah last year? After 33 days with all they had, did they win? When someone attacked someone else and takes NOTHING out, it means they lose, and this is what happend to Israel. Hizbullah was suppored by Iran and Israel was supported by US. So …………..
Israel had US, France, UK, UN Security Council AND Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, etc!!!!!!!!!!!!!! review those days news ….
Parsa, there is a reason why countries like the US, Britain, France and Russia don’t have armies numbering many millions, it is uneconomical. That many people can’t be sufficiently trained, sufficiently armed nor sufficiently kept. They are, to all intents and purposes, merely cannon fodder.
History is littered with many such armies, and they were always defeated. Take Alexander the Great, he defeated a Persian army at Gaugamela that numbered around a million, with less than 50,000 men. The British defeated 100,000 Matabele with just 700 men and a few Maxim guns. In war is it quality not quantity that counts or as Sun Tzu said:
“In war, numbers alone confer no advantage. Do not advance relying on sheer military power”
In reality the Basijis are nothing more than propaganda. More of a hindrance than help, they’ll probably only be used to shield the real army from danger as they are cheaper than body armour.
In reality Israel is closer to world no. 25 army than 5 (5 would be Germany). Israel bowed to pressure in the end but I’d hardly say that they lost. They severely damaged Lebanon’s infrastructure, bear in mind though that Israel has just 1000 planes, the US has 18,000, yet Israel devastated southern Lebanon. They were free to bomb at will, they didn’t invade because they didn’t need to, I don’t think that the US will either. Look what the Israeli’s did to the Egyptians in the Sinai, it is all about aerial power these days.
There were no real winners in that war last year, but clear losers, the innocent Lebanese people (1000 Lebanese dead, 500 Hezbollah and 100 Israeli’s).
I think it will be the same story in Iran, the leaders will hide, I don’t think that the Islamic Revolutionary Guards will see much action either, but the Iranian people will suffer the most. The US are about as skilful ‘precision’ bombers as the Israeli’s but they have white phosphorous, napalm and cluster bombs just to make sure.
I hope that the US doesn’t attack, but if they don’t it won’t be for military reasons.
Hi Mac, you actually made a good point about the quantity of the army men. But we should also bear in mind that when wars get long, eg iran-iraq, us-vietnam, us-afghanistan & iraq, the quantity of the army men will play a vital role to keep the country/regime/government not fall. I suppose Basijis pass an initial training. Also all Iranian males have to do a 2 year military service which make them all familiar with mlitary concepts.
Basijis were used in the Iran-Iraq war as well. But not for shielding the main army as you said, but to back them up when needed. The Iran-Iraq war experience already exists and crosses your opinion.
About Israel-Lebanon war; if you refer to those days’ news, even Israeli media and government admitted they lost the war. They quantity of dead people is not the correct scale. It’s obvious that when a country invades another country, they will kill more, specially when they go to their land. Same with what Iran-Iraq war happened. Iran has 3-4 times more population and Iraq invaded Iran, hence more Iranians were killed and more Iranian equipment was destroyed. But Iran won the war… and now you’re going to say Iran didn’t necessarily win the war?! Let me add that when Israel’s population is decreasing year by year, this means they are losing everything.
Parsa, I am not sure where you heard that Israel’s population is decreasing but this isn’t true. The population of Israel is growing by 1.7% each year, compared with 0.6% in Iran and which is equal to Egypt’s, Egypt has the fastest growing population in the Arab world.
Israel though is another example of quality over quantity. It has a population of about 7 million, yet if has defeated its neighbours (who have a combined population of 110 million), many times. Even when out numbered in both terms of manpower and equipment.
I always thought that the Iran-Iraq war was a stalemate? But you do have a a good point there. The Iranian conscripts did do well against Iraq’s trained professional army (especially as the Iraqi’s were using chemical weapons). However Iraq’s army was poorly trained and poorly equipped therefore the gulf between the professional Iraqi troops and the Iranian conscripts wasn’t that wide. Many countries still have conscript armies, but the US found that in Vietnam, they weren’t that reliable. Especially compared with highly trained combat experienced veterans.
I should also point out that the potential war between Iran and the US won’t be a war in the normal sense, just an attack. It won’t be like the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, where Iran will be able to fight a guerilla war. It will most likely just be bombing raids and the odd commando raid, there won’t be an invasion like in Iraq.
it seems I made misread something, Israel’s population growth is decreasin …
Let me remind you that Iranians are not Arabs. They’re mostly Persians (check wikipedia as you always do!). The other issue is that Iran’s population is 70,000,000 so it government is trying to prevent further growth, however, Iran is the second largest muslim country in the world (after Indonesia).
Yes, I agree that the 6 day war between Israel and few Arab countries (not Arab “world”) is a good example of quality over quantity. As the 33 day war between Lebanon and Israel was too!
What you point out about Iran US war is what US is actually wishing! But my point is that Iran will not leave it go like that if it happens…
Besides, I guess the possibility of this war is now getting closer and closer to Zero!
I think that Iran’s only hope is Putin at the moment and just how much will he will oppose this attack. You say Iran won’t let it go, but what else can they do? Terrorist attacks against Europe and the US? If Iran is getting continuously pounded by us warplanes, world opinion, as it did with Lebanon-Israel, will turn against the US. However if Iran starts suicide bombing in Europe and the US, then the US bombings will at best seem justified, at worst not enough (remember that the US has used nuclear weapons before, and will do again if they can justify it).
As for an Iranian invasion of Iraq or Afghanistan, unlikely. US planes would destroy any large movement of troops and the Taliban and Iraqi insurgency probably won’t link up with the Iranians, they’ll probably turn on them.
I am not sure what you meant by Iran being the second largest Muslim nation. If you meant by area then it is Kazakhstan (if you can consider that a Muslim nation), then Sudan, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, Libya and then Iran.
If you meant in terms of population then it is Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh (all three have more than double Iran’s population), Nigeria (not sure if it counts), Egypt, Turkey and then Iran.
Iran is the second biggest in the Middle East in both cases and has probably the second best military in the Middle East after Turkey. Everyone always seems to forget Turkey but this border incident could be more of a problem than people realise. For me Turkey is the only real power in the region and although a member of NATO, could really cause the US problems over this issue.
Excuse me!! In which terroristic operation has Iran got involved that you think Iran might do terrorist attacks in Europe and US?!! None, if you know any, tell me it with its evidence. Hopefully you know that US, UK and western’s media news is not evidence, but Propoganda…
Iran is a very big country, 2-3 times bigger than Afghanistan and Iraq. It’s resources are all distributed in different corners of the country, many hidden, underground, well-protected, etc.
US CANNOT use an atomic bomb. If they do, they will face the whooooleee world.
Iran is using Russia, China and few other countries to prevent the war, but if this war happens (again I’m saying the chance is almost zero) they will only provide weapons, etc.
I agree that Turkey has a powerfull army, but their Army does not supoort its government properly and they have lots of internal issues. But yes, they’re also good. The main strength is their Airforce…
if us attacks iran, oil price will go crazy n life will get hell for americans.
mac!
us didn’t get any permissions from un or her european allies. even though that many countries in europe and asia particulary russia were against us invading iraq us did so.
same for iran. so iran hasnt and wont rely on russia really.